![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
bytebuster
І ще, принагідно дякую. Моє питання про тероризм і релігію наразі посідає 4/5 місце за кількістю голосів за весь час існування сайту.Q:Did Turkey take revenge of Russian attacks on ISIS by downing the plane?
Is it possible that Turkey downed the Russian jet because they did not want Russia to be attacking ISIS (and maybe the Syrian Rebels)?
It is quite clear that Turkey is the one who buys Oil from ISIS and it is also clear that Turkish border is freely used for movement in and out of Syria(and thus Iraq). Also Turkey is against Kurdish people, who are a major force fighting against ISIS(probably the most successful one on the ground).
Is it possible that Turkey believes that attacking russian plane (likely inside Syrian territory) will stop Russia from conducting more attacks close to it's border and hence it will be able to continue sending more fighters to Syria and continue to buy oil from ISIS?
I source many of these comments from military experts (retired military officers) in India, which in my experience are very neutral towards both NATO/USA and Russia.
A: This question comes from several claims which are, at minimum, unproven and, at maximum, are untrue. Here they are:
Claim: Russia is attacking ISIS
Reality:
This time, the Russians most certainly were not bombing ISIS.
This picture (in Russian language) explains it all.
The title says: "WTF have you forgotten there?", red arrow points: "You've been downed here", two grey arrows point: "ISIS is out there".
Note, red points are Assad's, green points is Syrian opposition, grey points are ISIS, yellow are Kurds.In general, only less than 10% of Russian bombings target ISIS. The rest of Russia's targets are Syrian opposition who fight against Assad:
More than 90% of Russian airstrikes in Syria have not targeted Isis, US says — The Guardian
Even more; Due to Russians using ancient WW2-age air bombs, only a small fraction of those actually hit military targets (of any side of the conflict).
Picture: A typical bomb the Russians use in their assault. The inscription says, "For Paris" (meaning terrorist attacks on 13 November 2015). Source: Voice of America
The rest of the Russian bombs fall in desert (if Syrian civilians are lucky) or hospitals (if those Syrians aren't lucky).
Claim: Turkey downed the Russian jet because of revenge
Reality:
There are numerous violations of countries' air space by Russian fighters and bombers;
- Including those carrying weapons (see the definition of Act of Aggression);
- Including those carrying 1950's bombs that could fall on countries' territory just because they are loosely attached;
Russian planes violated the airspace of NATO member Turkey on Oct. 3 and 4 during strike missions against Syrian opposition targets in Syria. — Reuters
Turkey has filed warnings to the Russians, and October, 5:
A spokesman for Russia's defense ministry dismissed any idea that the incident was anything nefarious, stating flight patterns that change "under certain weather conditions" might help explain what happened.
"This current incident is a result of bad weather conditions in this region," spokesman Igor Konashenkov told reporters. "You shouldn't look for conspiracy theories." — CNN
Every country has the right to defend its air space, including elimination of any violators.
Obama: 'Turkey has the right to defend its airspace' — BBC
Claim: It is quite clear that Turkey… buys Oil from ISIS
Reality:
It might be clear for the asker. It might be also clear to Putin of Russia who claimed this recently. But reality is,
- There are no proofs of Turkey to buy oil from ISIS; Some left-wing papers also claim that, but again — no valid proofs are provided:
Turkish businessmen struck lucrative deals with Isis oil smugglers, adding at least $10m (£6.6m) per week to the terror group’s coffers, and replacing the Syrian regime as its main client. Over the past two years several senior Isis members have told the Guardian that Turkey preferred to stay out of their way and rarely tackled them directly. — The Guardian
There are symmetric claims (again, mostly in left-wing papers) that Assad, the only ally of the Russia, has financial deals with ISIS, including oil supplies:
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria is even selling fuel to the Assad government, lending weight to allegations by opposition leaders that it is secretly working with Damascus to weaken the other rebel groups and discourage international support for their cause.
The Nusra Front and other groups are providing fuel to the government, too, in exchange for electricity and relief from airstrikes, according to opposition activists in Syria’s oil regions. — NY Times
Claim: Turkish border is freely used for movement in and out of Syria
Reality:
Turkey is a (surprise, surprise!) sovereign country. If some groups are allowed to cross its borders, it's up to Turkey's gov't. I'm not aware about any facts that actually happened, but they can exist.
Russians have been warned numerous times — not to cross the border of Turkey, or they will get eliminated.
Claim: Kurdish people, who are a major force fighting against ISIS
Reality:
There are hundreds of armed groups in Syria, fighting each other. Some of them unite into groups, this is how ISIS has been established. Kurds, indeed, fight against some ISIS-associated groups, but they do also fight against Assad and also against FSA.
However, Kurds can't be considered "the major force fighting against ISIS".
Further reading about Kurds:
- Why Turkey Is Fighting the Kurds Who Are Fighting ISIS — NY Times;
- Syrian Kurdish–Islamist conflict (2013–present) — Wikipedia
Claim: Russian jet was "likely" hit inside Syrian territory.
Reality:
Turkey Downs Russian Jet After Repeated Warnings — Bloomberg
- Russians ignored warnings and entered Turkish airspace;
- Missiles have been launched into the second jet;
- Air-to-Air missile is not a laser gun someone may have seen in computer games. It takes time to reach its target.
- Here's the map of the incident, it looks pretty much self-evident. (NY Times).
Green square is the place where the missile hit the jet.
Compare to ISIS location: it is ten screens to the right.
Summary
- Russians are fighting Syrian opposition in order to keep Assad in power;
- Russian jets have committed numerous violations of Turkey air space in the past;
- Turkey has filed numerous warnings that any further intruders will be eliminated;
- Russians did it again;
- What happened must happen — sooner or later;
- It is difficult to talk about "revenge" in this case.
Підписатися на RSS