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bytebuster) wrote2018-03-15 07:06 pm
How does the expelling of diplomats work to create pressure on the diplomats' home country?
Q: How does the expelling of diplomats work to create pressure on the diplomats' home country?
The UK has decided to expel Russian diplomats as response to the poisoning of an ex Russian spy in the UK. This tactic has been used by UK and other countries in the past (example: 4 diplomats were expelled by the UK when another Russian spy was poisoned)
As far as I know, this is not the same as breaking of diplomatic ties with another country, meaning that the expelled diplomats will just be replaced with a new set of diplomats. So it seems like an inconvenience at best?
How does the expelling of diplomats work to create pressure on the diplomats' home country?
A:
Several important factors impose the pressure against the diplomats' home country (in general and in this particular case):
- Expelling the diplomats quite often ruins the entire spy network;
- Expelling the diplomats is often only the first step in a chain of escalating events;
- This particular expulsion is unique by its size and future consequences.
Ruin the entire spy network
Although the expulsion of 23 of totally 58 accredited Russian diplomats may seem a half-measure, it is not. It is not about those 23 physical people who will surely be appointed, say, to work in Russian embassy in another country. The recent expulsions of Russian diplomats indicate that accredited diplomats were on top of large network of local agents and collaborationists.
When in December 2016 the US has expelled Russian diplomats, the Russians were forced to destroy evidence of their "work" on the soil of the US. We don't know how many local agents were left without the cover, but we can safely assume that the amount of "active measures" has radically dropped since then — at least, temporarily.
Also, the fewer personnel the embassy has, the less legal support the Russian citizens who legally live in the U.K. will receive. This will impose the pressure on the Russian government by oligarchs who have settled in the West, whose property is in the West, whose children study in Western universities, and sometimes even barely speak Russian because all their live they live in the West.
Smoke billows from a chimney on top of the Russian consulate in San Francisco — Image courtesy of Deutsche Welle
One Slice at a Time
The proposed chain of measures to repel the Russia from further attacks is impressive. It includes:
- closer monitoring and financial sanctions against top Russian officials and oligarchs who have settled safe in the U.K.;
- more pressure on Russian propaganda that still actively works against the British citizens;
- convincing the partner countries (US, France, Germany) and organizations (NATO) to join the multilateral attempt to stop the Russian "active measures" in Europe and in the world;
Also, Russia anticipates the U.K. to extradite 40 criminals, including serial killers. So it is possible that 17 more to be expelled.
The Unique Event
The Independent puts it this way:
The biggest expulsion of Russian spies from the UK for more than 30 years has been ordered by Theresa May, as she vowed to degrade the country’s espionage network “for years to come”.
However, the main message must be that, for the first time in its modern history, the U.K. officially acknowledges a chemical attack against the Kingdom (against the citizens of UK, occurred on British soil) and condemns it.
Personal opinion: I'm monitoring the Russian press, and the hysteria there (like "a-ha-ha, look, the Queen will not attend a sports competition! give us MORE sanctions like that!") only confirms my impression that this time the U.K. does the right thing.
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